zhisou (old blog)

You´ve got to put the Republicans ahead of the Democrats, all other things being equal, and the ex-NYC mayor is currently polling the best among Republicans and Democrats alike for the nomination (except perhaps for Condaleeza Rice, who insists she is not running), and for the Presidency itself.  This creates a fascinating twist, as the Eastern seaboard New Yorker, who is vocally pro-choice, is all that the Southern Republican Bible Belt abhor.  This allows a chink in the GOP armour that could be exploited by the Dems if they chose a Southern religious type known for pro-life views.  This would leave northern Dems falling for Giuliani´s cross-party appeal, and Southern Republicans voting Dem through gritted teeth.

More likely they´d back someone like Frist all the way through the primaries and there would be north-south divide and a genuine primary battle between ideologies and consequently the soul of the Republican Party.  The Dems might do best to sit back and see what happens, play the Wes Clarke card perhaps to be on the safe side.

Giuliani more or less confirmed his tilt at the big prize in Copenhagen last year (2005), though no further official moves have been made – expect to see his profile rise following this year´s mid-term elections.